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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CIN 26 for 2 yards (31-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model