Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 14

(:22) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.82 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -1.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model