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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 54

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP