Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 24 – New England Patriots 14

(4:35) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to NE 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.78 EP
54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model