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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 21 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP