Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 64

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 21

(12:20) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to GB 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.18 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model