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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 21 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.95 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP