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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 24 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP