Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Pettis (39-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on GB-96-C.Wooden, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP