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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 45
Green Bay Packers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 10-J.Love up the middle to NO 43 for 2 yards (90-B.Bresee).
The Three Options
GO
+1.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
- 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK
-0.92 EP
- 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 62% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
