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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 51

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 49 for no gain (19-J.Sweat; 90-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.30 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model