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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP