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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 70

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 10-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.75 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model