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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP