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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 41

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 12 for 29 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model