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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model