4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 47 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 20-Q.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.91 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model