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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model