Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 79

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 36 for 6 yards (58-J.Magee). PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.95 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model