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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model