4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 7

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [3-J.Bates].

The Three Options

GO +3.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model