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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to WAS 17, Center-49-L.McCullough. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 19 yards (26-A.Williams; 40-J.Bertrand).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model