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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 12

Washington Commanders 21 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 47-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model