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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at WAS 19 for 31 yards (20-Q.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.29 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model