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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP