4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 70

Washington Commanders 24 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:50) 10-T.Way punts 61 yards to ATL 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 26-A.Williams to ATL 19 for 10 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model