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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to WAS 6, Center-49-L.McCullough. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 6. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 22 yards (51-D.Malone; 53-N.Landman).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model