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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Houston Texans 2

What Actually Happened

(:29) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model