Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 74

Houston Texans 2 – Baltimore Ravens 24

(11:31) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-S.Sims to BAL 38 for 5 yards (56-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.21 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model