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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 19

Houston Texans 2 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to BAL 12 for 7 yards (0-R.Smith). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to BAL 13 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.14 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 19, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model