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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Houston Texans 2

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model