Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 59

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(6:20) 6-T.Townsend punts 29 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model