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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model