Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 54

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross. PENALTY on HOU-37-D.Ross, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model