Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Houston Texans 0

(13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model