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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model