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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model