Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Green Bay Packers 18

(4:43) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to GB 38, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.11 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model