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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 16-W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.79 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP