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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP