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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NYJ 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 26 for 12 yards (85-Q.Morris; 69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model