Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 89

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 19

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to BUF 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to NYJ 42 for 25 yards (0-B.Allen). PENALTY on NYJ-39-J.Monroe, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.85 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model