4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 33

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 35 for 7 yards (32-I.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model