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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 40 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 22-R.Davis up the middle to NYJ 42 for 3 yards (36-C.Clark). ** Injury Update: BUF-70-A.Anderson has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.79 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model