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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 24

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle to BUF 24 for no gain (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model