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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 41

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-27-M.Dial.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model