Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 14

(:09) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to NE 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-5-K.Elam.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.65 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -1.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model