4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 8-S.Martin punts 29 yards to NE 6, impetus ends at NE 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP