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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right to 1-C.Samuel to NE 44 for 3 yards (29-I.Bolden; 53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.83 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model