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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 31

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model